Every week until the end of the season I will attempt to give strategic advice to the remaining contestants on Survivor: Micronesia – Fans vs. Favorites. My advice cannot actually help them, of course, since the show has already been filmed, but I will write what I think the best strategic moves are for each Survivor so that those of us watching at home can see who has the best shot at winning from week to week.
When I told Natalie to stop flying under the radar last week I didn’t know she was going to take it to the extreme. Despite the fact that she went from zero to villain in one show, Natalie made some strong strategic moves that could win her some votes at the final Tribal Council.
Natalie needs to be weary of wishing too much for an all woman’s final three. It doesn’t really make sense for her to go to the final Tribal Council and face Cirie (and maybe not even Parvati). Cirie will almost surely defeat her if the jury is mostly Faves. Natalie needs to start thinking about who she needs to go up against. She should keep making strategic moves that show she’s playing the game, but I think those moves should mostly include hooking up with Amanda and getting rid of Cirie and Parvati.
Cirie is in the power position right now. Already most of the blame for the Ozzy ouster has been laid at Parvati’s feet which is great news for Cirie who actually engineered the plan. Right now she needs to keep doing what she’s doing, but start making plans for the end game. Cirie would probably best be served by going to the final three with Natalie and Alexis so hooking up with them would be a good move. She won’t want to move too fast, but getting rid of Parvati pretty soon would be wise.
I still think Parvati’s chances of winning this game are not great. However, she’s playing the best game she can play at the moment so she just needs to keep it up and get her shot. Keeping Alexis and Natalie loyal to her is paramount as they are the ones she has the best chance against in the finals. Still, she’ll have to argue that it was her plan to get rid of Ozzy in order to prove she played well and that’s not going to sit well with some. For now she needs to keep Amanda from getting any bright ideas (which they apparently did last week) and get rid of the two guys.
Alexis might think she’s in a solid, winning alliance, but she’d be wrong. Even if she makes it to the final Tribal Council in her current alliance she can’t win. She hasn’t done anything to win.
Alexis should seriously consider jumping ship and forming a new alliance. Only by proving she did some sort of strategic move can she hope to win this game. There’s still numbers so hooking up with Amanda, James, and Erik would turn the game around and give you a shot. In a final three against any of those two she could argue she had superior strategy (although I wouldn’t recommend going up against Amanda).
I know strategic gameplay isn’t James’ strong suit but he’d better learn it quick if he wants to stay in this game. He was right to give up on Parvati as there’s no way he could make anything happen there. It’s doubtful Cirie would listen to anything he has to say either.
James messed up bad last week by not getting Amanda, Erik, and Jason to make a move against the other women when he knew what they were going to do, but he’s going to have to put that behind him and figure something out. I suggest convincing Amanda and Erik to pull in either Alexis or Natalie with the argument that neither or them will win against the other women. Alexis is the best bet…and probably his only chance.
Amanda dropped the ball big time last week when she failed to make a move against the women. She has to know that she’s sitting at number five right now. Once James and Erik are gone, she’s next (maybe sooner if they win immunity). Amanda has the numbers now if she can bring over just one person. One of the four women in the other alliance isn’t going to the final Tribal Council. If Amanda can convince that woman she has a better shot with Amanda and her alliance then Amanda might have a shot. If she doesn’t do it now, though, she’ll never have the numbers. Alexis is her best bet.
Erik is still sitting in a pretty bad spot. Either he or James is probably the next to go and banking on getting individual immunity is not a plan. Erik needs to firm up his relationship with James and Amanda and try to form a relationship with one of the other women. At this point he should be making the case to them as to why they should be taking him to the final Tribal Council which means he should be telling them why he can’t win. He shouldn’t have any trouble thinking of something to say.
What went wrong? Pretty much everything. Jason trusted people he had no reason to trust and he didn’t read any of the signs that he should have been able to see from a mile away. He never formed any early alliances and didn’t have a single friend to warn him of impending danger. Jason simply wasn’t bright enough to realize that he was being played so the women’s plan to eliminate him worked and he looked like a sucker.
Cirie and Parvati are still in control of this game despite what Natalie thinks. As long as they can keep pushing the all women thing and can keep the plan moving along one of them might just win this game. Both of them should be aware that the others could turn on them at any time so they need to be shoring up their own little alliances as much as they can.
James, Amanda, and Erik still have one last shot at turning this game around, but this may be their last chance to do it. If they don’t make a move soon they’re going to be sitting in the jury box before you know it.
Merged – Dabu
Natalie Bolton, James Clement, Cirie Fields, Alexis Jones, Amanda Kimmel, Erik Reichenbach, Parvati Shallow, Jason Siska