Every week until the end of the season I will attempt to give strategic advice to the remaining contestants on Survivor: Micronesia - Fans vs. Favorites.  My advice cannot actually help them, of course, since the show has already been filmed, but I will write what I think the best strategic moves are for each Survivor so that those of us watching at home can see who has the best shot at winning from week to week. 

Cirie

Cirie was the mastermind behind the Ozzy ouster this past week.  It’s no surprise that Cirie wanted Ozzy out since she’s not been a fan of his at all this season.  But it’s hard to say that voting Ozzy out was a good move on her part.  I can see why she might have thought it was, but I’m not sure I agree.

Cirie was the fifth member of the Four Lovers alliance (Ozzy, Amanda, James, Parvati) that was now reunited because of the merge.  With only 9 people left in the game, a five person alliance has most of the control.  Even with individual immunity wins there’s ample options to vote out other people until you get down to five or six.  Cirie probably felt her position in that alliance was slightly precarious because of Erik’s recent advancements with Ozzy, but Ozzy hadn’t shown any preference for Erik over Cirie, and, in fact, had been preaching the loyalty of the five the whole time.  It seems more likely that Erik was a useful idiot for Ozzy and could have been for the Four Lovers Alliance if Cirie had allowed it.

Now that Ozzy is gone, the Four Lovers Alliance, Cirie’s alliance, is in shambles.  It’s not going to take Amanda and James (well, Amanda) long to figure out that Parvati and Cirie orchestrated the whole thing.  Now, James and Amanda aren’t going to have much choice but to try to stick with Parvati and Cirie for the time being (after all, they still have Erik, probably), but they’ll be on the lookout for something better.

Cirie created conflict and uncertainty in a situation where she had virtual stability and an almost guaranteed top five or six just by doing nothing.  Sure Ozzy had strength by having the hidden immunity idol, but it wasn’t overwhelming strength that was threatening Cirie.  And she voted off one immunity winning powerhouse and saved another one (Jason) who has actually been on a longer winning streak.

Cirie now needs to consolidate her power by reassuring Amanda and James that the Four Lovers Alliance is still good.  She should get Parvati to keep her mouth shut and try to pull in Erik as the fifth wheel.  Instead of being in the power position of a single choosing between two duos she’ll be in a much more precarious position of five individuals, but she could still pull it out.  She needs to concentrate on getting rid of Jason and Parvati’s alliance mates, Alexis and Natalie.

Parvati

I don’t know what Parvati was thinking with the Ozzy ouster last week.  She had nothing to gain by getting rid of Ozzy.  In fact, Parvati did nothing except guarantee that she cannot win the game.  She says that she has an alliance with everyone.  The problem with that is that a lot of people are going to have to get screwed over in order for her to get to the final three and she just made sure that she screwed over the maximum number of people possible.

If she had stayed with her original alliance she would have been in the same boat as Cirie as far as getting to the final five or six.  She has an alliance with Alexis and Natalie which she would have to go back on so they would get screwed over which would be bad, but that’s only two people.  I think it’s safe for us to assume that Parvati won’t be getting Eliza’s vote.  So, with Eliza, Alexis, and Natalie, Parvati would have three votes almost surely against her if she went that route.

However, by betraying Ozzy, she now has Ozzy and Eliza against her as well as James and Amanda for sure because she screwed up their chances.  Plus, assuming she teams up with some sort of all girls final five she’ll have to screw over either Alexis, Natalie or Cirie for the final three which means she could lose that vote as well.  If so, she’d already have five votes against her.  There would be no way she could win.

Her best bet now that the damage has already been done, is to go back to James and Amanda and let them know that it was Cirie’s plan to get rid of Ozzy.  The three of them along with Cirie and Erik could still form a top five.  She might want to keep her friendship with Alexis and Natalie, but make it clear that she couldn’t get the other girls (Amanda) to switch alliances.  If they think her alliance is calling the shots they might not blame her when they get voted off.  Still a risky plan.

Alexis

Alexis didn’t have to do much to luck into a power position in this game.  She and Natalie benefited the most from the Cirie maneuver that ousted Ozzy.  If they can convince Parvati and Cirie that an all girls alliance makes sense they have a very good shot of making it pretty far.  Alexis has done a good job of not making enemies except for maybe Amanda.  Still, she and Natalie should convince Paravati that taking other Faves to the finals with them would make her appear as less worthy so Parvati will help them get rid of Amanda and Cirie.  She can beat Parvati in the voting, but she still needs to show herself worthy of actually winning this thing.  So far she hasn’t done much.

Natalie

Most of what I said for Alexis goes for Natalie too.  Flying under the radar is fine up to a point.  I don’t think it’s going to get her to the final three this season like it might would have in other seasons.  Even if it does I find it unlikely that the jury will reward her with a vote if she doesn’t show herself worthy by doing something.  So far we haven’t seen much in the way of strategy or skill.

James

James has every right to be mad and pissed off at Parvati right now.  What he can’t do, however, is let it effect how he plays the game.  Probably easier said than done.  Aligning with Parvati, Amanda, Cirie, and Erik is probably still his best bet of making it to the final three.  Unfortunately, Parvati didn’t have a problem screwing over Ozzy who is her friend in real life so I doubt she’s going to have a problem screwing over this guy she just met.  She’s also been preaching girl power which is kind of the anti-James strategy.

He should stick with Amanda no matter what and try to cozy up to Erik as much as he can.  He might still be able to get on Cirie’s good side too, but he’s going to have to really play the game.  The four of them might be able to convince Cirie to make a move against Parvati at 7 (assuming they get rid of Jason this week).  That would be the best case scenario.

Amanda

Like James, she’s going to have to get over her anger over Ozzy in a hurry if she wants to stay in the game.  Her odds went from very good to pretty bad really fast.  That doesn’t mean she’s out.  Parvati’s alliance with Alexis and Natalie seems pretty tight so she needs to strengthen her ties to the other players (except Jason).  An alliance of four would be enough to at least force a tie to try to get Jason out (if he doesn’t have immunity). 

If Jason wins immunity they’re probably going to go after James since he’s the biggest and strongest man left.  It’s unlikely that she’d be able to change their minds so she might have no choice but to look towards an all girls alliance of some kind.  It is not the alliance she wants to be in because she and Cirie will be the outsiders in that alliance.  It’s better than getting voted out, though, and you never know what might happen in the Immunity Challenges.

Jason

Jason needs to keep winning immunity.  He’s really got nothing.  He’s so arrogant that I don’t think he could join an alliance even if everyone needed him.  If he were a normal player I would suggest he team up with James, Erik, and Amanda and then try to convince Cirie to act as the swing vote.  But he’s not a normal player and the others can’t stand him.  As soon as he doesn’t have immunity he’s probably the first one to go.  Of course, that’s what everyone thought last week…

Erik

Erik is in one of the worst positions in the game (next to Jason).  It was his dumb luck to get stuck with a group of Fans who couldn’t make anything happen and ended up getting themselves voted off one by one by the Faves.  He did a great job of working himself into Ozzy’s good graces and saving his own neck, but with Ozzy now gone, his position is very weak.

His biggest problem is that Ozzy was his protector and Erik didn’t make any other solid alliances.  He can’t go back to the old Fans because they all have other strategies going on that doesn’t include him.  He might find a willing partner in Jason, but partnering with him would have little positive benefits (and probably a lot of negative - unless they could make it to the final three).

Erik’s best bet right now would be to try to stay with James and Amanda and, with them, try to convince Cirie to come back into the fold.  He should find James and Amanda willing to accept him since they will need alliance mates and he proved he was on their side by not voting against Ozzy (of course, he didn’t know about the Ozzy conspiracy, but still).  His athletic ability (and maleness) will probably make him a target fairly soon so he’d better shore up his alliance fast if he wants to stay in this game.

Conclusion

We should have a much better idea of how things are headed after this week.  Everything is kind of up in the air now because of Ozzy getting voted out and the Four Lovers Alliance seemingly broken up.  This week should tell us if the remaining alliance members are going to act out of emotion or if they’re going to think strategically.  Whether or not Jason wins individual immunity could also play a big factor in how everything turns out.

Another possibility that I didn’t mention is for any of the alliances to try to use Jason as a spoiler.  He’s a pretty good stooge to take to the final three as he doesn’t have many friends.  He also doesn’t have an alliance so it might not be hard to get him to join an alliance.  The downside is pretty big, of course.  He’s not very bright and not very loyal so you can’t really trust him.  Plus, there’s always the chance that people could vote for him if he makes it to the Final Tribal Council on the basis of him beating the odds and getting so far.

Merged - Dabu

Natalie Bolton, James Clement, Cirie Fields, Alexis Jones, Amanda Kimmel, Erik Reichenbach, Parvati Shallow, Jason Siska

The Jury

Ozzy Lusth (Ep10), Eliza Orlins (Ep9)

Television
fans vs favorites, Survivor, Survivor strategy, Survivor: Micronesia

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