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Pop Critics Top 10 Summer Movie Predictions and Preview

Jason April 30th, 2008 Movies


With the hugely anticipated summer movie season now upon us (Iron Man opens this weekend), we thought it was time to take a look at who we think will be the biggest movies of the summer.  In the latest edition of Entertainment Weekly the magazine lists the movies they think will be the 10 biggest grossing films of the summer so we thought we’d share their predictions along with our own to see how they all compare.

The EW predictions for the summer box office look like this (with grosses):

  1. Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (355.9 million)
  2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (310.8 million)
  3. Hancock (280.4 million)
  4. Wall-E (280.3 million)
  5. Iron Man (267.7 million)
  6. The Dark Knight (255.0 million)
  7. Kung Fu Panda (244.6 million)
  8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (176.5 million)
  9. The Incredible Hulk (147.2 million)
  10. Tropic Thunder (146.6 million)

For our predictions we did away with predictions of the actual grosses because there’s little chance EW is going to be right and zero chance we will be.  It’s just too hard to guess something like that.  We did, however, try to explain a little about why we positioned each movie as we did.

Mike’s Predictions

  1. Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - There are millions of Indiana Jones fans out there and they should head out to the theaters in droves to see the next chapter.  Not to mention Shia LaBoueff will attract some newer fans.
  2. The Dark Knight - The first entry with Christian Bale was awesome, and now we get another one that looks to be even better. You throw in Heath Ledger and his final act as The Joker, and this could be a monster at the box office.
  3. Iron Man - This is going to be a monster and I for one cannot wait to see it.
  4. Hancock - Will Smith + superhero + comedy = goldmine.
  5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - The first chapter made almost $300 million, not sure if this one will do the same.
  6. Wall-E - Of course there is going to be a top animated feature this summer that surprises everyone, and while there is Kung Fu Panda, I think Wall-E is the ticket.
  7. The Incredible Hulk - I’ve heard good things about this new edition of the Hulk with Edward Norton and Liv Tyler.  I want to see it.
  8. Get Smart - I don’t know what it is about this movie, but it looks absolutely hilarious and with Steve Carell at the top of his game right now, it could be huge.
  9. Hellboy 2: The Golden Army - I know a guy with four kids, they all want to see this movie.
  10. Pineapple Express - The pot-smokers movie of the millennium.

Jason’s Predictions

  1. Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - Perhaps the most highly anticipated movie since Star Wars: Episode I.  There isn’t an age group that this film doesn’t appeal to, and, unless it stinks, there isn’t an age group that isn’t going to go see it.  We may never see another Indy film in theaters again.  I predict the guys pull it off and everyone loves it after all.
  2. Hancock - Will Smith is “Mr. Summer” and he’s right back where he belongs on Independence Day weekend with a huge summer movie.  His last three were all HUGE hits - Hitch pulled in $179M, The Pursuit Of Happyness garnered $163M, and last year’s I Am Legend became 2007’s sixth best film at the box with $256M.  He’s on a roll that only Indy can stop.
  3. Wall-E - For some reason, most online predictions don’t have Wall-E doing that well, but this is the first Pixar film since Monsters, Inc. that I’ve truly looked forward to seeing.  I think this one is going to be one of their crowd-pleasing best.
  4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - If it weren’t for such strong competition I’d put this film higher.  However, the buzz on this one has been slow in building and isn’t as great as it was for the first film in the series.  Recent trailers, though, have upped the action quotient and buzz is building.
  5. Iron Man - Buzz doesn’t get much bigger than what it is for this movie.  First film of the summer gets an early start and a big lead.  Somehow, however, I don’t think this movie is going to be as big as the fans think it’s going to be.  Iron Man isn’t Spider Man.  This movie skews more adult which means less kiddie money and less parents-who-bring-kiddies money.  It’ll still be big, but I’m thinking something more like Batman Begins than Spider Man.
  6. The Dark Knight - Ironically, the Batman Begins sequel stands to do better business than the first film thanks in part to some smart marketing and one last, giant hoo-rah from Heath Ledger as The Joker.  From all accounts Ledger’s performance is one to remember and fans will line up to pay their respects.
  7. Get Smart - I know I’m not the only kid who grew up watching reruns of this classic TV show.  Recent buzz surrounding the very funny trailer has proven this to be true.  Steve Carrell is a star thanks in large part to “The Office” (and no thanks to Even Almighty), and he has a great supporting cast that makes this the live-action family comedy of the summer.
  8. Kung Fu Panda - My original instinct was to leave this film off the list because of competition from Wall-E and because it’s a Dreamworks computer animated film rather than Pixar (think Madagascar).  However, marketing for this film has been going for a LONG time and Jack Black as the main character’s voice is a big draw.  And, we can’t forget, even Madagascar did almost $200M.
  9. The Incredible Hulk - In comics, Hulk is second in popularity only to Spider Man.  The first Hulk movie was a huge disappointment.  This reload of the franchise, however, has a talented cast and a team of filmmakers dedicated to bringing back the feel of the original comic books and the popular TV series.  A lot of people will still be leery, but word of mouth should make it a strong contender.
  10. Speed Racer - This movie takes the final spot in my top ten, barely edging out some serious competition, based upon the fact that Speed Racer was a huge hit cartoon from days gone by and because the Wachowski Brothers make the movie look like a candy store - don’t think kids won’t be screaming to go see cartoon looking cars go fast.  If Prince Caspian doesn’t take the entire audience, this will be the early summer film for the little kids.

Of course, for all the movies we’ve included, there’s a ton that we didn’t.  This summer is going to be packed and there’s at least another ten films that could easily make this list with even more movies that could be sleeper hits.

May

I remember when Twister came out on May 10, 1996 and everyone thought it was crazy how early the summer movie season was getting started.  We take that as a fact of life now.  In fact, May just might be one of the most crowded months of the year with Iron Man, Speed Racer, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, and Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull all opening this month.  There’s a good reason for it, though.  Open early and collect money all summer long.  I have all four of these movies on my list so they might be right.

One movie that barely missed my top 10 was Sex and the City: The Movie which opens on May 30.  I never watched the TV show so I don’t care to see the movie, but it’s a brilliant example of counter-programming if I’ve ever seen it.  While a lot of the summer movies are geared towards men, this is one of the few potential blockbusters geared almost solely towards women.  I’d expect them to reap the rewards.

June

Kung Fu Panda, The Incredible Hulk, Get Smart, and Wall-E all made my top 10 list so we already know June is going to be packed with hit movies.  But those four movies are only half of what June is bringing. 

On the same day Kung-Fu Panda opens, June 7, Adam Sandler opens his latest, You Don’t Mess With the Zohan.  Sandler movies used to be really funny, but his last couple have really sucked.  I have to admit I wasn’t sold on this one, but the latest preview was pretty funny.  And the truth is, if people will go see Sandler in the God-awful, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, this movie is probably going to do well.

We also can’t forget M. Night Shyamalan’s latest, The Happening, which will be happening the same day as The Incredible Hulk, June 13.  With some pretty creepy-cool previews and Mark Wahlberg as the star, this film has a lot going for it.  The negatives, however, are it’s R-rating and Shyamalan’s last couple of films which didn’t really connect with audiences.  Lady In The Water only grossed $42M.

On June 20th, Get Smart will find itself going up against Mike Myers as The Love Guru.  Early buzz on The Love Guru is practically negative so I’m still betting on Get Smart as the big winner, but Myers has a way of connecting with audiences so you never know what this film might do.

The end of June brings us a huge question mark when Wanted opens against Wall-E on the 27th.  No, there’s no question of whether or not Wall-E will win the weekend, but there is a huge question as to whether or not audiences will show up for Wanted at all.  James McAvoy, Morgan Freeman, Terence Stamp, and Angelina Jolie make a pretty compelling cast, but early buzz on this graphic novel adaptation hasn’t been that great.  They’ve also gotten a pretty late start on the marketing side, so it remains to be seen if they can catch up.  I’m guessing they’ll do okay if the movie is as cool as the premise.

July

Hancock and The Dark Knight both made my list while Hellboy 2: The Golden Army also made Mike’s list.  But just because some of the other movies didn’t make our lists doesn’t mean I don’t think they have a chance to be blockbusters.

For instance, the first part of the month will belong to Hancock, but July 11th will see Hellboy 2, Journey to the Center of the Earth 3-D, and Eddie Murphy’s Meet Dave all open against one another.  Out of the new releases, I think Hellboy 2 will own the weekend, but I also think it will fizzle faster than most people think.  Journey is the first completely digital 3-D film ever and it’s based on a very famous book and movie so I think it could be a surprise hit.  It remains to be seen if the 3-D effects will help or hurt the film but I’m betting a lot of people will line up to check it out.  Meet Dave, on the other hand, might be good for a few chuckles, but I’m betting that most people decide to wait for the DVD of this one.

On the 18th, the musical Mamma Mia! will try to be the upbeat counter programming to the darker and more depressing The Dark Knight.  It just might work.  The first big budget, big name summer movie to be geared squarely towards women since May’s Sex and the City: The Movie, this musical has a shot at making a pretty big splash.  I’m not a big ABBA fan, but the stage play has done very well for itself and the movie has an all star cast so who knows.

The last weekend of July has explosive potential as we see Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, open on the 25th against The X-Files: I Want To Believe.  Step Brothers was much more impressive before Walk Hard and Semi-Pro both bombed at the box office.  What was once supposed to be one of the summer’s giants will now be struggling to find an audience at all.  Ferrell has to be hoping that this film doesn’t pick up where Semi-Pro left off or his career is in serious trouble.  On the other hand, if he can find an audience, a Ferrell hit has goldmine potential.  The X-Files: I Want To Believe just missed my top 10 list.  I really feel it’s going to do very well.  The fact that the story will be self contained much like the earlier TV episodes should build strong word of mouth from fans and keep it playing for weeks.

August

August is always a hit or miss kind of month.  I feel like this year it has potential even if I didn’t pick any August movies to be in my top 10 list.  Mike chose Pineapple Express to barely make the list and I think that was a pretty good pick as it could very well be a big hit.

One of August’s biggest potential money-makers is probably The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor which opens August 1.  Had they made this movie four or five years ago I would expect a lot more out of it.  As it stands, it’s been a long time since the last Mummy movie.  Add to that the fact that the “kid” is now all grown up (he’s like 21 in the movie) and Rachel Weisz didn’t even bother to come back for this one and I think I have a pretty good idea of what to expect.  It’ll still make money, but I think people are going to be disappointed - especially after having seen the original action/adventure hero, Indiana Jones, already earlier in the summer.

Pineapple Express should have the weekend of the 8th locked up although The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 may surprise us by how much it brings in.  The girls in the movie are all bigger stars now than they were originally and the fans of the first movie may turn out in larger numbers.

August the 15th should be interesting as Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder takes on George Lucas’ animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars.  I didn’t think I’d see the day when a Ben Stiller movie had more buzz than a George Lucas, Star Wars related film, but that seems to be the case here.  The Clone Wars doesn’t seem to be getting much mainstream buzz at all so it’s tough to say if audiences will turn out or not.  At the same time, Ben Stiller seems to have a potential mega-hit on his hands with Tropic Thunder and a great supporting cast is only going to help.

The rest of August won’t see any huge movies opening, but there are other movies in August that deserve a mention.  Swing Vote with Kevin Costner might get a few adult votes.  Bangkok Dangerous is Nic Cage’s only summer film, but don’t expect a hit from this one.  Crossing Over is Harrison Ford’s serious film of the summer about immigration.  A strong cast could propel this one.  Babylon A.D. is a Vin Diesel sci-fi starrer that should have been one of summer’s most anticipated films.  The fact that it’s not says a lot about what we can expect.

So there you have it.

We’ve analyzed and gone over all of the summer’s biggest and most highly anticipated summer movies.  We’ve given you our predictions for the ten movies we think will be the most successful films of the summer and we’ve told you why.  Now we want to know what you think.

What movies do you think will be the biggest movies of the summer?  What’s your top ten list?  What movies are you most looking forward to?

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